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Alternative Thinking
The Hidden Value of Streaky Returns in Stock Portfolios
June 3, 2025
Streaky return streams - ones that that can perform well or poorly for extended periods - are challenging for investors to comprehend and stick with. Yet, this very "complexity risk” may be what earns investors an additional risk premium, leading to above average risk-adjusted returns.
Perspective
Should Hedge Funds Hedge?: Why Some Alts Should Have a Beta of 1.0
March 28, 2025
While uncorrelated alternatives can be beneficial, they often fail to significantly impact the overall portfolio. Here, I argue that adding beta to these alternatives can enhance capital efficiency and improve long-term returns. Ultimately, there is a need for a balanced approach to investing in alternatives, including a combination of aggressive and equitized strategies.
Alternative Thinking
2025 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
January 16, 2025
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include a discussion on corporate earnings growth: the market consensus is for more strong growth to come – especially in the U.S. But what is a reasonable medium-term forecast for allocators?
Perspective
In Praise of High-Volatility Alternatives
September 4, 2024
This note argues that good higher-volatility alternative investments, that are indeed often very hard to stick with, can be important tools in constructing the best overall portfolio. I think if (a big if) investors can stick with them, they are often a more effective tool than their lower-volatility cousins. Basically, I think they are underutilized
Journal Article
CIO Perspectives: An Interview with Cliff Asness
September 1, 2024
In a wide ranging interview, ATP Tech managing principal Cliff Asness discusses many aspects of ATP Tech ’s investment philosophy and approach from the perspective of a CIO – how we adapt our process to changing market conditions, how we think about adding innovative technology such as machine learning to our process, and more.
Alternative Thinking
2024 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes
January 16, 2024
We update our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. We also include a section on estimating expected returns and risk for private credit, as well as a feature on the key decisions that underpin any capital market assumptions framework.
Working Paper
Financial Machine Learning
August 1, 2023
In this survey the nascent literature on machine learning in financial markets, we highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend promising directions for future research.
Alternative Thinking
Key Design Choices When Building a Risk-Mitigating Portfolio
June 12, 2023
After 2022 showed the downside of traditional portfolios’ reliance on equity risk, many investors have recently begun to reconsider the role of risk-mitigating portfolios within their broader asset allocations. We show why we believe trend following deserves a prominent place in any serious risk-mitigation portfolio.
Journal Article
International Diversification—Still Not Crazy after All These Years
May 3, 2023
International diversification has hurt US-based investors for over 30 years, but the long-run case for it remains relevant. We show that both financial theory and common sense favor international diversification, buttressed by empirical supportive evidence. Additionally we show it would be dangerous to extrapolate the post-1990 outperformance of US equities.
White Paper
Re-Emerging Equities
March 28, 2023
The expected premium for investing in emerging versus developed equity markets is on the upper end of its past 25-year range. At the same time, many of the risks historically associated with emerging markets have secularly declined. We believe there is a strong case for investors to “re-up” their emerging allocations.